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Friday August 1 the International Atomic Energy Agency approved a controversial India-specific agreement that will open up 14 of India’s nuclear reactors and facilities to inspections. The reason this agreement is noteworthy is that it represents the first time the IAEA has designed such an agreement with a nuclear-capable nation that is not a party to the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).
Pakistan's prime minister is telling U.S. officials "he feels he has no choice" but to conduct a nuclear test in response to the five nuclear tests conducted by India this week, U.S.
Pakistan has perhaps taken more risks than any other nation in America's war on terror. Yet it remains most insecure about its relations with Washington. In fact Pakistan's extensive and risky cooperation with the US has done little to alleviate its own security dilemmas. Pakistan, even today remains exposed to the dangers of preemptive strikes from America's other close allies in the war on terror, India and Israel. Even from the US, Pakistan is not fully assured.
Washington seems to maintain a complex strategy of coercive diplomacy combined with economic assistance towards Pakistan which rewards it economically for its cooperation but does not reduce its geopolitical threats. In a strange way Pakistan in spite of being a close ally of the world's most dominant power continues to live in a Hobbesian world.
Insecurity can lead nations to monumental irrationality. Notice how a heightened sense of vulnerability after September 11 attacks has led American foreign policy from one monumental blunder to another. As Pakistanis, especially the Islamists are made to feel that their nation is being bullied into working against its own interests and its own people and faith, their anger, resentment and fear is increasing.
At seminar after seminar on South Asian security and on the war on terror, I hear Pakistanis expresses deep concern, confusion and suspicions about Washington's policies and in particular the emergence of a new anti-Pakistan axis --- US, Israel and India.
Pakistan essentially identifies three dangers to its national security and they are:
1. A conventional strike by India from the Kashmir border or a strategic strike by India against Pakistan's nuclear facilities.
2. A preemptive strike by Israel at Pakistan's nuclear facilities with India's direct assistance or by using India as a base.
3. A preemptive strike by the US against Pakistan's nuclear facilities to prevent them from becoming available to Islamists who could easily come to power in Pakistan.
Every nightmare scenario for Pakistan involves a threat to their nuclear capability form either one or all of the three states who are currently working very closely --- India, Israel and the US. All three of these nations now identify "Islamic terrorism" as the main threat to their own security and their ultimate nightmare involves Jihadis armed with nukes. Pakistan's nuclear weapons, sought primarily for defense against a conventionally superior India, seem to have increased the possibility of Pakistan becoming a victim of attacks from more powerful nations far and near, rather than making it more secure. Perhaps there is a lesson in this for Iran.
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